In the 2014 midterm elections, Republicans managed to maintain control of the House of Representatives, as well as gain control of the Senate for the first time since 2006. Virtually nobody had predicted these results, but the reason for them was clear: a shockingly low voter turnout rate.
2014 had an absolutely dismal voting rate, with only 36.3 percent of the VEP (voting-eligible population) participating in the election. This was the lowest rate since 1942, following the entry of the United States into WWII. The number of votes cast dropped by 42 percent compared to the 2012 elections.
Republicans were able to win so many seats because of an uninspired, disillusioned Democratic population, resulting in a low voter turnout. There is danger of this happening in the presidential election of 2016 with previously assumed front runner Hillary Clinton as the Democratic candidate.
In new Huffington Post polls, Bernie Sanders is polling better than Clinton against Republican leader Donald Trump. The latest polls show Clinton winning a general with 48.1% of the vote against Trump’s 43.9%. While this is still a win for Democrats, Sanders’ poll predicts him winning 51.5% of votes versus Trump’s predicted 40.4%. Both of these are close, but clearly show Sanders having the edge over Clinton if they were both forced to confront Trump. In addition, these polls report that the probability of Sanders leading Trump is 99%, compared to Clinton’s 97% confidence of lead.
These results may be surprising to some, but in truth they reflect the new wave of inspiration that Sanders’ supporters have spread with greater intensity over the past few weeks. The often-criticized beliefs of the Vermont senator turned presidential candidate are reactivating a voting base that has begun ceding the political in recent years, paving the way for Republican victories.
Sanders himself said that a reinvigorated group of Democrats will lead to the high voter turnout that he can access, but Clinton cannot.
“Republicans win as they did in November 2014 when voter turnout is low, when people are demoralized, when a lot of people don’t go in to vote,” Sanders said. “So, if in November 2016 you have a demoralized base in the Democratic Party…there is a decent chance that a Republican can win. If you have an excited Democratic base and Independents who are saying, ‘it’s time for real change in this country’, then, we win.”
This optimism and ability to excite has been particularly helpful to Sanders in gaining the support of younger voters.
Osaremen Okolo, a 21-year-old Harvard Student who currently supports Clinton, recently told the Guardian why Sanders is so popular among her peers.
“Young people like Bernie because he sounds like a revolutionary,” she said. She also said she “misses feeling fired up” by Clinton, as Sanders’ supporters feel about him.
With that excitement clinging to Bernie’s campaign and lacking from Hillary’s, it is easy the benefits of a general election with Sanders as the Democratic candidate.
Photo Credit: Getty Images/ Joe Raedle
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