Controversy surrounds Supreme Court Nomination

 

Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia was found dead on the morning of Saturday, Feb. 13, having passed away in his sleep at the age of 79. Scalia served on the Supreme Court for 30 years and consistently voted as a strong conservative.

During his presidency, Ronald Regan nominated three Justices of the Supreme Court of the United States: Sandra Day O’Connor in 1981, Anthony Kennedy in 1988, and Antonin Scalia in 1986. Thirty years later, controversy is surrounding the nomination of a new Justice to replace Scalia following his death.

Historically, the President of the United States nominates Supreme Court Justices as the need arises during their presidency, and those Justices are then confirmed by the Senate. Since Scalia’s death, the Republican-controlled Senate, led by Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (Rep.-KY), has threatened to block President Obama’s potential SCOTUS nomination and demanded that Obama’s successor, to be elected in November, makes the appointment.

“President Obama insists that he will nominate someone for the court. He certainly has the authority to do so. But let’s be clear — his nominee will be rejected by the Senate,” senator Pat Toomey (Rep.-PA) said in a Time Magazine article.

Democrats in the Senate consider this disgraceful behavior, arguing that Obama will remain in office until January 2017 and therefore must appoint a replacement for Scalia.

“By ignoring its constitutional mandate, the Senate would sabotage the highest court in the United States and aim a procedural missile at the foundation of our system of checks and balances,” Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (Dem.-NV) said of Republican threats.

According to Article Two of the United States Constitution, “[the President] shall nominate, and by and with the Advice and Consent of the Senate, shall appoint … Judges of the supreme Court…” This dictates that it is the President’s constitutional right and duty to appoint Justices if the Supreme Court suffers vacancies during their term. The wording of the constitution leaves little room for interpretation; the president shall, not may, nominate. This means that the Republicans denying Obama his right are technically in violation of the Constitution, making their actions illegal.

In Saturday’s Republican debate, candidates urged the Senate to delay approval on Obama’s eventual nominee. SenatorsTed Cruz (Rep.-TX) and Marco Rubio (Rep.-FL) both claimed that it has been 80 years since a Supreme Court Justice was appointed during an election year. However, they overlooked Anthony Kennedy, who was nominated in 1987, but confirmed by the Senate in February of 1988, the election year that also served as the finale of Reagan’s presidency.

With Obama’s recent legacy-building agenda, nobody is surprised he is trying to leave his mark on the Supreme Court as well. Without the ultra-conservative Justice Scalia, the court is currently in no-man’s land, with four conservatives and four liberals. The right nominee could swing the SCOTUS from conservative to liberal, a legacy every Democratic president would be itching for. And with both history and the law on his side, there is no reason Obama should not be the one to do it.

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photo credit: Bloomberg via Getty Images

 

New Hampshire Primary: Predictions

On February 9, New Hampshire voters will partake in their state’s primary event for the 2016 Presidential Election. After the “historically close” Democratic caucus between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton in Iowa, and Ted Cruz‘s upset over Donald Trump among Republicans, the New Hampshire results are pivotal for the upcoming election.

Historically, the winner of the New Hampshire caucus doesn’t always go on to win the nomination. In 2008, Clinton won the New Hampshire primary among Democrats over now-President Barack Obama, despite the surge in support for Obama following his Iowa caucus win. Also, no Democratic who won the New Hampshire primary has actually gone on to successfully win the presidency since Jimmy Carter did it in 1976.

Among Republicans, New Hampshire has yielded equally questionable results. Although the 2012 and 2008 victors, Mitt Romney and John McCain, respectively, did win their party’s nomination, the years before that were incredibly inaccurate. McCain also won the primary in 2000, yet George W. Bush ended up winning the nomination, and later the presidency. Similarly in 1996, Pat Buchanan won New Hampshire, yet Bob Dole went on to get the nomination.

Voters in both parties hoping for similar results to those in Iowa will be disappointed; New Hampshire’s voter base differs significantly from Midwestern Iowa.

Republican Cruz was able to win Iowa due to his mass appeal among the Evangelical base, which isn’t going to work for him in New Hampshire. Polls are predicting a Trump victory, with the Huffington Post putting him at 31.6%. In second place, first-term Florida senator Marco Rubio has 16.9%. This upward trend for Rubio isn’t surprising, given his strong third-place finish in Iowa.

Despite winning the Iowan Caucus, Cruz hasn’t been able to maintain that momentum in New Hampshire. He had a slight surge after Iowa, but has now fallen into a relative race for third place, with relatively-unknown Ohio governor John Kasich, who has been popular among New Hampshire voters since he announced his candidacy.

For Democrats, New Hamsphire is even more important, after Iowa failed to produce a clear front-runner. Roughly 44% of voters in New Hampshire consider themselves independent or undeclared. This will probably end up being a clear advantage for Sanders, who is the longest serving Independent in Congress. However, New Hampshire also allows Independents to vote for either party, as opposed to Iowa, where people could only vote for the side they were a registered supporter of.

With Martin O’Malley suspending his campaign after failing to garner even 1% of voters in Iowa, there are only two Democrats left. Among those two, Sanders is the clearly assumed winner. Every poll puts him ahead of Clinton by a strong margin. Sanders has been narrowly ahead of Clinton since August in New Hampshire, but current polls put him nearly 20% above Clinton, a far cry from the .3% that dictated the Iowa caucus. Sanders is currently at 56.*%, with Clinton following at an even 38%.

No matter what the polls say, New Hampshire doesn’t always go as suspected. As it is, it looks like Sanders and Trump will walk away victorious.

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photo credit: Chip Somodevilla via Getty Images